Odds that the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (CLARITY) passes before June surged to 85% Thursday following high-level White House negotiations.
The spike coincides with intense discussions between Trump administration officials and top crypto executives regarding stablecoin treasury yields.
Key Takeaways
- Prediction markets surge: Kalshi bettors briefly priced the bill’s passage probability at 85% early Thursday, significantly up from Wednesday’s 39%.
- White House pressure: Administration officials are urging a compromise on stablecoin yields by the end of February to clear the legislative path for Spring.
- Market structure shift: If passed, the act would definitively split oversight between the CFTC for digital commodities and SEC for securities.
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Why Is The Clarity Act Critical Now?
The Clarity Act (H.R. 3633) aims to end the paralyzing regulatory turf war between the CFTC and SEC.
With Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent pushing for a spring vote, the clock is ticking. This domestic urgency mirrors global shifts, as even central bankers like Christine Lagarde face pressure regarding digital currency implementation risks.
The White House has set a strict timeline, demanding a compromise on stablecoin yields, essentially interest payments on parked funds, by March 1.
This resolution is required to unlock the broader market structure legislation that has stalled since passing the House last July.
Breaking Down the Negotiation Dynamics
Thursday’s closed-door meeting included legal heavyweights from Coinbase, Ripple, and a16z Crypto alongside banking representatives.
While prediction markets remain volatile, odds on Kalshi retraced to 46% after the initial morning spike, institutional sentiment is shifting.
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong described a “win-win-win” path emerging for the industry, banks, and the U.S. retail crypto market, which is still very much buying crypto.
The current draft legislation, which cleared the House with a bipartisan 294-134 vote according to congressional records, is now being reconciled with Senate concerns over DeFi safe harbors and illicit finance prevention.
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What Happens Next for Traders?
Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse now estimates an 80% chance the bill is signed by April.
While the U.S. races for clarity, Russia is tightening restrictions on foreign exchanges to increase state oversight of retail, highlighting the divergent paths in the global regulatory landscape.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin miner Bitdeer (BTN) stock tumbled 18% after announcing a $300 million convertible note offering to fund AI expansion, proving that regulatory optimism doesn’t shield individual tickers from dilution risks.
Legal experts predict full implementation could extend throughout 2026 as agencies draft specific rules post-passage.
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