Bitcoin is struggling to recover despite falling US Treasury yields, as technology-stock weakness and persistent ETF withdrawals weigh on demand.
Between Oct. 21 and Oct. 30, the world’s largest cryptocurrency declined 8.25%, falling from approximately $84,134 to $77,191, according to CryptoSlate’s data.
Over the same period, the Federal Reserve’s data shows that yields on 10-year inflation-protected US Treasuries fell from 2.76% to 2.60%, down 16 basis points. The Nasdaq-100 also lost 4.82%, reflecting mounting pressure on technology stocks.
The divergence is notable because lower real Treasury yields typically reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as Bitcoin. However, selling pressure across crypto and parts of the equity market has overwhelmed that potential support.
The weakness continued into November. On Nov. 2, the Nasdaq-100 declined another 1.39%, while Bitcoin’s daily Coinbase price observation fell 1.34% to approximately $77,062 from the previous day.
Bitcoin was trading near $76,861 early Tuesday, leaving it below the psychologically important $80,000 level.
Bitfinex attributed the weakness to declining technology shares and subdued spot-market demand, arguing that those pressures were overwhelming the potential support from falling real Treasury yields.
The selling pressure was compounded by Binance’s Oct. 29 security breach, which crypto trading firm Wintermute identified as the dominant crypto-specific shock behind last week’s downturn.
The incident struck an already fragile market, triggering about $1.5 billion in crypto liquidations, with long positions accounting for approximately 85% of the total.
Wintermute said traders had attempted to buy the decline primarily through leveraged perpetual futures rather than sustained spot purchases. As prices continued falling, those positions faced further liquidation, deepening the downturn.
The firm warned that there was little evidence of fresh capital entering the market to support a durable recovery.
Bitcoin faces $76,800 test as ETF withdrawals accelerate
The weakness has also extended to US-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, which recorded $398.6 million in net outflows on Nov. 2, according to Farside Investors.
BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust accounted for $405.3 million in withdrawals, partially offset by $6.7 million in inflows into Fidelity’s FBTC.
That followed $643.2 million in ETF outflows on Oct. 30, bringing total net withdrawals across the two trading sessions to approximately $1.04 billion.
The sustained redemptions have added to concerns about Bitcoin’s ability to recover, particularly as Wintermute’s analysis suggests that recent buying has been concentrated in leveraged derivatives rather than supported by substantial new spot-market capital.
Lower real yields did not translate into a Bitcoin rebound; spot demand, ETF flows and a test of $76,800–$80,000 now shape the near-term outlook.
Coinbase Bitcoin observations and Nasdaq closing times differ. The yield series had no Nov. 2 observation in the cited snapshot. The data describe co-movement and dated flows, not proven causality; the ETF bars show only two trading sessions.
Wintermute identified $80,000 as the key level Bitcoin must reclaim to reverse its cautious near-term outlook. It said any sustained recovery would need to be supported by stronger demand in spot markets and ETF inflows.
On the downside, the firm identified Bitcoin’s 50-week moving average near $76,800 as the next critical support level, warning that a sustained break below it would strengthen the bearish case.
The outlook now depends partly on upcoming US economic releases, including September job openings data on Nov. 3 and the October employment report on Nov. 6.
Both reports could influence Treasury yields and expectations for Federal Reserve policy. But even another decline in real yields may offer limited relief if technology shares remain under pressure and Bitcoin ETF investors continue withdrawing funds.
A sustained move below $76,800 would leave Wintermute reassessing the downside risks, while a recovery above $80,000 backed by renewed spot buying would challenge its cautious outlook.
