In Block Scholes’ October 26 snapshot, Bitcoin options carried a much smaller election premium ahead of the November 3 US midterms than before the 2024 presidential election. The comparison measures the extra forward volatility priced into the window containing the vote. The Federal Reserve has since held rates at 3.75%–4% on October 28, following its September increase.
A report from derivatives research firm Block Scholes, updated October 27, compares Bitcoin options eight days before the 2024 presidential election and the 2026 congressional midterms. Its finding gives holders a reason to focus on what the result changes in investors’ expectations, rather than treating election day itself as a recovery catalyst.
The test arrives during an uneven rebound. CryptoSlate’s Bitcoin price page showed a quote near $80,069 in an October 29 snapshot, down 4.9% over 30 days and 36.6% below its all-time high.
A much smaller election premium
Block Scholes’ October 26, 2026, snapshot at 09:00 UTC put annualized forward implied volatility at 37.8% for the seven-to-14-day window containing the election. The corresponding 14-to-30-day reading was 35%, while the 30-to-60-day reading was 37.7%.
The election window therefore carried premiums of 2.8 and 0.1 volatility points over those later intervals. At the matched observation on October 28, 2024, the premiums were 14.4 and 10.8 points. The distinction concerns the shape of the pricing curve, as well as the volatility level.
| Forward volatility measure | Oct. 28, 2024 | Oct. 26, 2026, 09:00 UTC |
|---|---|---|
| Election window, days 7–14 | 62.7% | 37.8% |
| Days 14–30 | 48.3% | 35% |
| Days 30–60 | 51.9% | 37.7% |
| Election premium over days 14–30 | 14.4 volatility points | 2.8 volatility points |
| Election premium over days 30–60 | 10.8 volatility points | 0.1 volatility points |
Source: Block Scholes, using Deribit data. Both observations were eight days before voting: the 2024 presidential election and the 2026 midterms.
Forward volatility examines pricing for a particular interval within an option’s life. Cboe’s explanation illustrates the method using S&P 500 options: the calculation separates a shorter period from the contract’s remaining duration.
The annualized units matter. A 37.8% volatility reading is not an expected 37.8% election-week price move, a probability of a particular result or a forecast that Bitcoin will rise. It describes variability embedded in options pricing for the specified window.
The smaller election premium does not prove cheap protection or complacency. Later windows contain their own risks, so the comparison does not isolate election risk. It shows only a slight volatility premium in that interval, a much smaller distinction than in 2024.
The November 3 vote determines congressional representation and majorities. It is a different political event from a presidential election. As USAGov explains, midterms take place halfway between presidential elections, so 2024 cannot serve as a controlled test of how Bitcoin should behave this time.
Block Scholes also found little contemporaneous relationship between changing election expectations and Bitcoin’s daily returns. Its analysis of changes in Kalshi’s Democratic Senate-control probability reported an average correlation of -0.02 in 2026 through October 26.
That result is specific to the contract and period studied. It does not rule out a sharp reaction to an unexpected result. It does mean the report offers little evidence that day-to-day changes in those Senate expectations had been closely tracking Bitcoin returns before the vote.
A surprise and a sustained recovery are different things. The market test is whether a change in political expectations is followed by lasting buying, assessed alongside any change in the rate outlook.
The Fed comparison runs in the opposite direction
The clearest policy difference is already on the record. On September 18, 2024, the Fed cut its federal funds target range by half a percentage point to 4.75%–5%. On September 16, 2026, it raised the range by a quarter point to 3.75%–4%.
The 2026 range was lower in absolute terms, but the latest move was upward. A lower rate level does not turn a hike into an easing decision, and one hike does not establish a sustained tightening cycle.
The Fed held that range on October 28 in a 10–2 vote, with Lisa D. Cook and Beth M. Hammack preferring a quarter-point increase. Its next meeting is scheduled for December 8–9.
The October 26 options comparison predates that hold. Future changes in the rate outlook remain a separate test from the election result.
There is a concrete price test alongside those political and monetary questions. CryptoSlate’s October 27 recovery coverage, citing Bitfinex, described a failed rebound toward $84,930 and a concentration of holder acquisition prices between $81,000 and $82,500.
That October 29 quote puts Bitcoin below the previously reported acquisition-price zone. Those holdings are not confirmed sell orders, so the range cannot establish an inevitable rejection. Holders who bought nearby may respond differently as prices revisit their purchase levels.
An election-led recovery would become more convincing if changed political expectations were accompanied by buying strong enough to sustain gains through that area. Continued rejection would leave the recovery question unresolved, whatever the political narrative.
History supplies no automatic answer. Block Scholes cautions that earlier post-midterm Bitcoin recoveries overlap with the asset’s cycle and other market events, making election effects difficult to separate.
